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Daily Brief, Oct 15

The financial markets exhibited thin volatility in the wake of a national holiday in the United States, Canada, and Japan on Monday. However, the volatility is expected to be back today as the economic calendar is loaded with some high impact economic events. Most of the focus will remain on the labor market report from the United Kingdom and inflation figures from New Zealand.
According to Bloomberg, China wants another round of trade negotiations by the end of October before signing the trade deal outlined by Trump. Trump on Friday said that both parties had reached “phase one deal”. The optimism that came on Friday after the announcement from US President Donald Trump faded away after the news from China for more trade talks before signing.

Watchlist – Key Economic Events Today

GBP – Average Earnings Index 3m/y – 8:30 GMT

It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation and shows a change in price for businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Simply, when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer which leads to inflation.
The UK’s Office for National Statistics reported 4.0% average earnings in September 2019, whereas, economists are expecting it to come out at 4.0% with no change this month.

GBP – Unemployment Report – 8:30 GMT

It’s one of the most eyed economic data as it shows a change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month. The upcoming jobs report is expected to be neutral. Jobless claims are expected to drop from 28.2K to 21.3K in the month of September 2019.
While the unemployment rate is also expected to remain unchanged at 3.8%. Fellas, the bigger number show slacks in the labor market and it will pressure BOE to keep the interest rates lower in the upcoming policy meetings.

GBP – BOE Gov Carney Speaks – 8:30 GMT

The Bank of England Governor Mark Carney is due to testify on the Financial Stability Report before the Treasury Select Committee, in London. Investors will be focusing on Carney remarks about upcoming inflation, the impact of Brexit and the potential setups that the BOE will be looking to take to support the weakening economy.

EUR – German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 9:00 GMT

The Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung will release numbers at 09:00 (GMT). The data is expected to drop to -27.0 vs. -22.5 previously. It’s a negative figure in nature and may drive selling in EUR/USD today.
It’s a survey of about 300 German institutional investors and analysts which asks respondents to rate the relative 6-month economic outlook for Germany.
The figure used to be in the range of -3 to +3 before June. But due to bad economic conditions, rising debt to GDP ratio and strikes, it’s pretty clear that German institutional investors are losing confidence in the economy. So, that’s another reason to expect a continuation of bearish sentiment in the euro.

Good luck !

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