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Tuesday, May 07, 2019

USD Index Near 97.300

Last week was an active one for the USD Index, featuring a meeting of the FED and a blockbuster Non-Farm Payrolls report. Due to the active news cycle, rates experienced considerable turbulence before eventually calming down just above the 97.000 handle. Now, it appears that the June USD Index is content to tighten in the vicinity of Friday’s close (97.200).

Earlier today, the U.S. Treasury Department held auctions for the 3 and 6-month T-bills. Yields came in mixed, once again signaling that institutional investors still prefer equities to debt. Here is a quick look at the auction’s results:
Event                               Actual          Previous
3-Month T-Bill                  2.380%        2.385%
6-Month T-Bill                  2.380%        2.395%

June USD Index Futures Seek Fair Value At 97.300

In comparison to the opening GAP down in U.S. equities, the USD has settled into a relative calm. Participation is relatively light, with the economic calendar vacant until Thursday’s Jerome Powell speech and Friday’s U.S. CPI figures.

June USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart

Overview: Price action in the USD Index has become choppy over the last five sessions. However, the long-term trend remains bullish. A bias to the upside will stay in play until rates fall beneath daily support for an extended period. All in all, it appears as though this market is in a position to post fresh yearly highs as the summer season draws near.

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