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Friday, May 03, 2019

AUD/USD drops through 0.7000

Weak building data cements slide

AUD/USD traded below the psychological 0.70 mark late yesterday and the FX pair moved even lower this morning, pressured by weak building permits data. AUD/USD traded to the lowest since January 3, the day of the mini flash crash, after the data. Yesterday’s close below 0.70 was the first time since January 2.

Building permits fell 15.5% m/m, a larger drop than the -14.0% economists had expected and almost wiping out the 19.1% gain posted in February. The data again questions the state of the Australian housing market, which has seen prices in major cities Sydney and Melbourne drop 10% in the year to April.

Nonfarm payrolls to headline

April’s US employment report is due later today and will no doubt be the highlight of a busy week. Economists forecast that the US economy added 185,000 jobs last month, less than the 196,000 recorded in March and below the six-month moving average of 207,000.
 Dollar could rip higher with a stellar NFP report
 The unemployment rate is seen holding steady at 3.8% while average hourly earnings are expected to climb 0.3% m/m.
Aside from the US jobs report, we get to see US wholesale inventories for February, the goods trade balance for April and US ISM services PMIs from Markit and ISM for the same month. Recall the manufacturing sector put in a mixed performance with the Markit reading improving to 52.6 but the ISM reading deteriorating to 52.8.
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