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XAU/USD – Little Movement as Gold Close to 4-Year Lows

Gold prices is stable on Tuesday, continuing the lack of movement which started off the week. In the European session, the spot price trades at $1167.82 per ounce. Gold is trading close to lows not seen since July 2010.
In economic news, Trade Balance is expected to show little change, with an estimate standing at -$40.0 billion.
It was another solid performance from US GDP on Thursday, which posted a strong gain of 3.5% in Q3, ahead of the estimate of 3.1%. Although this was short of the Q2 reading of 4.0%, the two readings mark the strongest six-month gain we’ve seen in ten years. Unemployment Claims increased slightly to 287 thousand, slightly higher than the previous reading of 284 thousand. However, the four-week average remains at multi-year lows, pointing to an improving labor market.
The US dollar posted strong gains against gold on Wednesday, boosted by a hawkish Fed policy statement. The Fed said that the labor market is strengthening and inflation remains on target, although it did note that the labor market participation rate remains low. As expected, the Fed completed the taper of its QE3 program. The asset-purchase program was introduced in 2008, at the height of the economic crisis, in order to boost a weak US economy and maintain interest rates at ultra-low levels. The termination of the QE is a symbolic step which is a vote of confidence from the powerful Fed that the US economy is on the right track.
XAU/USD for Tuesday, November 4, 2014

XAU/USD November 4 at 12:20 GMT
XAU/USD 1167.82 H: 1174.90 L: 1163.93

XAU/USD Technical
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1111 1130 1156 1200 1215 1240

  • Gold has been flat in the Asian and European sessions.
  • 1200 is the next resistance line.
  • On the downside, 1156 is an immediate support level. 1130 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1156 to 1200.
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1156, 1130, 1111 and 1073
  • Above: 1200, 1215, 1240, 1252 and 1275

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Tuesday. This is consistent with the lack of movement we are seeing from the pair. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias in favor of gold breaking out and moving higher.

XAU/USD Fundamentals
  • 13:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -40.0B.
  • 15:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate -0.4%.
  • 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 46.6 points
  • All Day – US Congressional Elections.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

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