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Thursday, November 13, 2014

XAU/USD – Little Movement Ahead of US Job Numbers














Gold is stable on Thursday as the spot price stands at $1164.86. The metal has been listless for most of the week, and the absence of major releases out of the Eurozone or the US has contributed to the lack of movement from the metal. However, we could see some activity after the release of Unemployment Claims and JOLTS Job Openings later in the day. As well, Fed Chair Janet Yellen will speak at conference in Washington hosted by the ECB and Federal Reserve.

We’ll get a look at the first major US release of the week on Thursday, with the release of Unemployment Claims. Last week’s reading of 278 thousand beat the estimate, and the four-week averages, which are more reliable indicators, remain at multi-year lows. The upcoming estimate stands at 282 thousand. The US will also release JOLT Job Openings, an important indicator. The markets are expecting a slight softening in the September reading, with a forecast of 4.81M.

XAU/USD for Thursday, November 13, 2014

XAU/USD November 13 at 13:30 GMT
XAU/USD 1164.86 H: 1166.03 L: 1153.64

XAU/USD Technical
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1111 1130 1156 1175 1200 1215

  • Gold has posted slight gains on the day. The pair tested support at 1156 late in the Asian session and early in the European session.
  • 1175 is an immediate resistance line.
  • 1156 is providing weak support. 1130 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1130 to 1156.
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1156,  1130, 1111, 1073 and 1041
  • Above: 1175, 1200, 1215 and 1240

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
XAU/USD ratio is unchanged on Thursday, continuing the trend we saw a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as gold is showing slight gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias in favor of gold moving higher.

XAU/USD Fundamentals
  • 13:30 US Unemployment Claims. Estimate 282K.
  • 15:00 US JOLTS Job Openings. Estimate 4.81M.
  • 16:00 US Crude Oil Inventories. Estimate 0.7M.
  • 17:30 US FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 17:45 Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 30-year Bond Auction.
  • 19:00 US Federal Budget Balance. Estimate -111.5B.
  • 20:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT





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