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Tuesday, November 18, 2014

USD/CAD – Steady as US Manufacturing Inflation Beats Estimate













USD/CAD has posted slight gains on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the low-1.13 range. On the release front, the US Producer Price Index posted a gain of 0.2%, beating expectations. In Canada, today’s sole release is a speech BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote.

US inflation numbers have been persistently weak, but the news was good on Tuesday, as PPI beat expectations with a modest gain of 0.2%. This marked a 4-month high and beat the estimate of -0.1%. Core PPI, which excludes the most volatile items counted in PPI, posted a gain of 0.4%, above the forecast of 0.2%. This was the index’s best showing since April. We’ll get a look at consumer inflation data on Thursday.
Canadian Foreign Securities Purchases looked weak in September, with a reading of just C$4.37 billion, compared to C$10.28 billion a month earlier. This was well short of the estimate of C$11.32 billion. The Canadian dollar posted strong gains on Friday, taking advantage of an excellent Manufacturing Sales report. The key indicator posted a gain of 2.1%, easily exceeding the forecast of 1.3%.
USD/CAD for Tuesday, November 18, 2014

USD/CAD November 18 at 16:15 GMT
USD/CAD 1.1316 H: 1.1324 L: 1.1260

USD/CAD Technical
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.1004 1.1124 1.1278 1.1414 1.1493 1.1669

  • USD/CAD posted losses in the Asian session but recovered in European trade. The pair is steady early in the North American session.
  • On the downside, 1.1278 was tested earlier and remains a weak support line. 1.1124 is stronger.
  • 1.1414 is a strong resistance line.
  • Current range: 1.1278 to 1.1414
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1.1278, 1.1124, 1.1004 and 1.0961
  • Above: 1.1414, 1.1493, 1.1669, 1.1723 and 1.1875

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
USD/CAD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday. This is consistent with the movement of the pair, as the US dollar has posted slight gains. The ratio remains close to an event split between long and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias as to what direction USD/CAD will take.

USD/CAD Fundamentals
  • 13:30 US PPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual +0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 55 points.
  • 18:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 19:05 BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote Speaks.
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 41.3B.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

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