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Tuesday, November 18, 2014

GBP/USD – Pound Flat as British CPI Meets Expectations
















GBP/USD is flat on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.56 range. On the release front, British CPI edged above the forecast, posting a gain of 1.3%. In the US, the Producer Price Index posted a gain of 0.2%, beating expectations.

On Tuesday, the UK released a host of inflation indicators, led by CPI, the primary gauge of consumer inflation. There were no surprised, as all of the indicators met expectations. The index improved to 1.3%, just above the estimate of 1.2%, which was the reading last month. Although the increase was marginal, it ended a streak of three straight readings where CPI has weakened.  The pound shrugged off the readings, and remains close to 14-month lows. Last week, the BoE Inflation Report was unexpectedly dovish, resulting in the pound tumbling over 100 points.
GBP/USD for Tuesday, November 18, 2014

GBP/USD November 18 at 16:45 GMT
GBP/USD 1.5649 H: 1.5679 L: 1.5631

GBP/USD Technical
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.5392 1.5505 1.5644 1.5717 1.5864 1.6000

  • GBP/USD is showing very little movement. The pair tested support at 1.5644 during the day.
  • 1.5717 is the next resistance line.
  • On the downside, 1.5644 remains fluid. Will the pair break below this line? 1.5505 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.5644 to 1.5717
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1.5644, 1.5505, 1.5392 and 1.5282
  • Above: 1.5717, 1.5864, 1.6000, 1.6141 and 1.6263

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
GBP/USD ratio is almost unchanged on Tuesday, continuing the trend we have seen since the start of the week. This is consistent with the lack of activity displayed by GBP/USD. The ratio is pointing to a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards the pound moving higher.

GBP/USD Fundamentals
  • 9:30 British CPI. Estimate 1.2%. Actual 1.3%.
  • 9:30 British PPI Input. Estimate -1.4%. Actual -1.5%.
  • 9:30 British RPI. Estimate 2.3%. Actual 2.3%.
  • 9:30 British Core CPI. Estimate 1.6%. Actual 1.5%.
  • 9:30 British HPI. Estimate 12.1%. Actual 12.1%.
  • 9:30 British PPI Output. Estimate -0.3%. Actual -0.2%.
  • 13:30 US PPI. Estimate -0.1%. Actual +0.2%.
  • 13:30 US Core PPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual 0.4%.
  • 15:00 US NAHB Housing Market Index. Estimate 55 points. Actual 58 points.
  • 18:30 US FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 19:05 BoC Deputy Governor Agathe Cote Speaks.
  • 21:00 US TIC Long-Term Purchases. Estimate 41.3B.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

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