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EUR/USD – Steady as Euro Industrial Production Matches Forecast

EUR/USD is steady on Wednesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.24 range in the European session. On the release front, it’s been a slow week, with only minor events on Monday and Tuesday. In today’s events, Eurozone Industrial Production matched expectations with a gain of 0.6%. The German Wholesale Price Index disappointed, with a reading of -0.6%.

Eurozone inflation levels continue to limp along. German Wholesale Price Index declined for the second time in three readings, coming in at -0.6%. This was well short of the estimate of +0.2%, and was the index’s steepest decline since November 2013. We’ll get a look at more inflation data during the week, as Germany and France release CPI on Thursday, followed by Eurozone Final CPI on Friday.
Employment numbers have been strong in the US, and this played a major role in the Fed decision to wind up QE in the last week of October. However, US Nonfarm Payrolls, the most important employment indicator, was a big disappointment in October. The indicator slipped to 214 thousand, well short of the estimate of 235 thousand. On a brighter note, the unemployment rate slipped to 5.8%, its lowest level in six years. As well, last week’s unemployment claims fell to 278 thousand. This was better than the estimate of 285 thousand and marked a three-week low.

EUR/USD for Wednesday, November 12, 2014
EUR/USD November 12 11:15 GMT
EUR/USD 1.2468 H: 1.2498 L: 1.2430
EUR/USD Technical
S1 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
1.2143 1.2286 1.2407 1.2518 1.2688 1.2806

  • EUR/USD has been marked by choppy trading, and the pair has put pressure on the immediate support and resistance lines.
  • On the downside, 1.2407 has been under pressure in the European session. Will the pair break below this line?
  • 1.2518 is an immediate resistance line. 1.2688 is stronger.
  • Current range: 1.2407 to 1.2518
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 1.2407, 1.2286, 1.2143, 1.2042 and 1.1875
  • Above: 1.2518, 1.2688, 1.2806 and 1.2905

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
EUR/USD ratio is pointing to gains in short positions on Wednesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is not consistent with the pair’s movement, as the euro is almost unchanged on the day. The ratio is close to a split between and short positions, indicative of a lack of trader bias towards what direction to expect from EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Fundamentals
  • 7:00 German WPI. Estimate 0.2%. Actual -0.6%.
  • 8:00 FOMC Member Charles Plosser Speaks.
  • 10:00 Eurozone Industrial Production. Estimate 0.6%. Actual 0.6%.
  • 15:00 US Wholesale Inventories. Estimate 0.3%.
  • 17:00 FOMC Member Narayana Kocherlakota Speaks.
  • 18:01 US 10-year Bond Auction.
*Key releases are highlighted in bold.
*All release times are GMT

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