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AUD/USD – Choppy Trading Continues as RBA Maintains Rates

AUD/USD has posted slight gains on Tuesday, as the pair trades  in the low 0.87-range in the North American session. On the release front, the RBA maintained rates at 2.50%, as expected.
Australian Retail Sales was unexpectedly strong, with an excellent gain of 1.2%. The news was not as positive from Australian Trade Balance, as the deficit widened to its highest level in almost two years. In the US, the trade deficit widened to -$43.0 billion, its highest in four months.
There were no surprises from the RBA, which held rates at 2.50%. This marked the 15th straight month that the rates have stayed on hold, as the RBA is reluctant to tinker with the benchmark rate, which is considered low by Australian standards. The central bank took its customary shot at the Australian dollar, noting that the currency remains “above most estimates of its fundamental value”. Although the Aussie continues to trade close to its 2014 lows, the RBA is firmly of the opinion that the currency continues to weigh on the economy.
It was another solid performance from US GDP on Thursday, which posted a strong gain of 3.5% in Q3, ahead of the estimate of 3.1%. Although this was short of the Q2 reading of 4.0%, the two readings mark the strongest six-month gain we’ve seen in ten years. Unemployment Claims increased slightly to 287 thousand, slightly higher than the previous reading of 284 thousand. However, the four-week average remains at multi-year lows, pointing to an improving labor market.

AUD/USD for Wednesday, November 4, 2014

AUD/USD November 4 at 15:20 GMT
AUD/USD 0.8716 H: 0.8749 L: 0.8648

AUD/USD Technical
S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
0.8456 0.8550 0.8668 0.8763 0.8820 0.8953

  • AUD/USD posted gains in the Asian session. The pair has been steady in the European and North American sessions, as the pair continues to trade within range.
  • 0.8763 remains a weak resistance line. 0.8820 is stronger.
  • 0.8668 is an immediate support line. 0.8550 is next.
  • Current range: 0.8668 to 0.8763.
Further levels in both directions:
  • Below: 0.8668, 0.8550, 0.8456 and 0.8315
  • Above: 0.8763, 0.8820, 0.8953, 0.9020 and 0.9119

OANDA’s Open Positions Ratio
AUD/USD ratio is pointing to gains in long positions on Tuesday, reversing the direction seen a day earlier. This is consistent with what we’re seeing from the pair, as the Australian dollar has posted gains. The ratio has a majority of long positions, indicative of trader bias towards AUD/USD continuing to post gains.

AUD/USD Fundamentals
  • 00:30 Australian Retail Sales. Estimate 0.3%. Actual 1.2%.
  • 00:30 Australian Trade Balance. Estimate AUD -1.78B. Actual AUD -2.26B.
  • 3:30 Australian Cash Rate. Estimate 2.50%. Actual 2.50%.
  • 3:30 RBA Rate Statement.
  • 13:30 US Trade Balance. Estimate -40.0B. Actual -43.0B.
  • 15:00 US Factory Orders. Estimate -0.4%. Actual -0.6%.
  • 15:00 US IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism. Estimate 46.6 points. Actual 46.4 points.
  • All Day – US Congressional Elections.
* Key releases are highlighted in bold
*All release times are GMT

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